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Quarterly Investment Review Letter 2015 Q1

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Up and Down.... What's In Your Portfolio?

Many countries and regions around the world are continuing to generate mixed economic performances. Longstanding structural issues are still counteracting cyclical forces of recovery, keeping global activity in the slow lane of growth. Recurring geopolitical stress points are compounding the problem, adding to the volatility in financial markets and undermining confidence. The recent weakness in equity prices highlights the growing uncertainty about longer-term prospects and earning capabilities in a world challenged by too little demand and too much supply.  
~Scotiabank Economic Commentary. 31 March 2015.

Mixed economic performance is code for slow to nil GDP. Global Central banking policies are a convoluted, cacophonous manner and mishmash of breath-holding and playacting – waiting for the great uptick in demand and productivity in an era awash in oversupply. In Europe, Asia, India and Canada, central bank governors are posturing and peeking all around for directions and signals of growth, breaking green shoots forth from somewhere...anywhere.  

The US Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, has been attempting to clarify – yet remains vague and obfuscating – about near-term interest rate hikes. This from the single “strongest” economy there is…reportedly.

Inconsistencies, nationally and globally, within real estate reports, global manufacturing reports, employment numbers and deflation/inflation predictions all contribute to the convoluted, cacophonous manner of reporting. Recently, on each of two consecutive days, Wall Street Journal front page headlines reported markets both bullish and bearish! 

Here's a classic:  “Looking ahead, current conditions remain quite supportive of stronger and more sustainable growth. However, the sluggish economic performance internationally attests to difficulty in regaining and sustaining increased traction.”  Really? .... What? ....

There is, however, refreshing news. In your personal RMFP Portfolio, consistency is the Value Style performance for Monthly High Income fund as published: 1 Year 16.12%; 3 Year 13.26%; and since inception in 2001, 9.36%. Now that is simple, consistent clarity!

“Excessive inequality is not good for sustainable growth.” ~Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF

We welcome your comments and conversation.